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Incrementality

Incrementality measures how many conversions a marketing channel or partner truly caused that would not have happened otherwise, separating genuinely driven sales from those that would have occurred anyway.

Attribution asks who to credit for a conversion; incrementality asks whether that conversion was actually additional. It is usually tested with holdout or geo experiments that compare groups exposed to a channel against those that were not.

In affiliate marketing, incrementality is central to evaluating coupon, loyalty, and cashback partners: if a customer was already going to buy and simply searched for a code at checkout, that sale may not be incremental. Understanding incrementality helps merchants pay for genuinely new revenue rather than skimmed existing sales.

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